The future of theatrical moviegoing is at a critical moment. More people have been going to movie theaters this year than last, but the foundation is delicate.
Annual domestic box-office grosses are still down about 20% from pre-pandemic levels, competition from streaming has only intensified and there are very real worries about what consolidation might mean for the release schedule as Warner Bros. stares down new ownership under Paramount.
It’s under these precarious conditions that Hollywood executives and movie theater owners are gathering this week in Las Vegas for CinemaCon, the annual exhibition and trade show made famous — or at least slightly less obscure — by Seth Rogen’s show “The Studio” and his “old school Hollywood buffet.” Real-life Hollywood executives have bigger concerns than throwing a party, however.
A critical time for movie theaters
As “F1” and “Top Gun: Maverick” producer Jerry Bruckheimer said last week in a statement: “We are at a defining point in the future of this industry.”
Bruckheimer, “Oppenheimer” producer Emma Thomas and “Sinners” director Ryan Coogler are teaming up to do something about it. Just last week, Cinema United, the trade organization representing some 60,000 movie screens in the U.S. and abroad, announced that Bruckheimer would be chairing their newly established filmmaker leadership council, with Thomas as vice chair and Coogler as one of its inaugural members.
Other members include Brad Bird, Celine Song and Jason Reitman, who will advise on issues facing theatrical moviegoing, including windows, referring to the number of days films play exclusively in movie theaters before being available to buy or rent at home, and consolidation.
“Our industry is strongest when it works together to promote the singular experience of seeing a movie on the big screen,” Cinema United president and CEO Michael O’Leary said in a statement. “The importance of having Jerry and Emma at the helm of this initiative, at such a critical time for our industry, cannot be overstated.”
The Paramount and Warner Bros. elephant in the room
Much of the public and private handwringing will revolve around Paramount’s pending acquisition of Warner Bros. Both studios will be hyping their upcoming slates to theater owners, in separate presentations: Warner Bros. is planned for Tuesday and Paramount is on Thursday. The question is how much, if at all, executives from either company will address the elephant in the room from the stage as former 20th Century Fox Chair and CEO Stacey Snider did in 2018 with the Disney acquisition looming.
While Paramount Skydance chairman and CEO David Ellison has said that he would like to grow the combined Paramount and Warner Bros. slate to more than 30 movies a year, there are lingering concerns from organizations such as Cinema United.
Historically, fewer standalone studios have meant fewer movies made for theaters, and between the pandemic, the strikes, the ramping up of streaming services and general financial instability, the release schedule has taken the hit. In 2019, there were 112 wide releases, or films released in over 2,000 theaters. This year, for the first time since the pandemic, that number is up to 115, according to Comscore.
On Monday morning, more than a thousand Hollywood professionals, including Denis Villeneuve, Kristen Stewart, J.J. Abrams and Joaquin Phoenix came out against the merger in an open letter arguing that it would only further reduce jobs.
The show must go on, with stars and footage to help
Doom and gloom is hardly ever the prevailing mood at CinemaCon, however. The studios wouldn’t shell out big bucks to bring out their stars and footage if there weren’t some optimism and excitement about what’s to come.
The audience-driven studio Angel announced five new movies from the Colosseum stage Monday: A Cold War drama starring Jeff Daniels as President Ronald Reagan, an Owen Wilson and Alan Ritchson action movie and a remake of the John Wayne movie “Angel and the Badman” starring Tommy Lee Jones, among the titles. The studio behind the box office hit “Sound of Freedom” plans to release 10 films in theaters this year.
Universal’s president of domestic distribution Jim Orr said he thinks the mood going into the conference is “very optimistic.”
“The first part of the year we’ve seen some extraordinary titles and great business, including our own ‘Super Mario Galaxy Movie,'” Orr said. “I think it should be quite the celebration in Vegas this year.”
This summer has Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey,” a Steven Spielberg sci-fi spectacle, a Star Wars movie, the live-action “Moana,” a fifth Toy Story and a new “Spider-Man.” And later this year there’s a new Marvel movie, “Avengers: Doomsday” and the third “Dune,” both coming out on the same day, December 18. Could Dunesday be the new Barbenheimer?
There have also been bright spots for movie theaters recently, including increased audience interest in premium large formats, like IMAX and 70 mm, and a PG-rating box office boom suggesting that families and younger audiences haven’t entirely abandoned the big screen for the small one.
The recent success of films like “Project Hail Mary,” “Hoppers” and “Wuthering Heights” also show that it’s not just franchises that are bringing people to the theaters — although it’s wrong to underestimate the importance of tentpoles like “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie.”
“At least from the box-office perspective, we are going in on a very positive note,” said Paul Dergarabedian, who heads marketplace trends for Comscore.
Plus, those inside the industry are often quick to remind that the business has survived its share of existential crises, whether it’s streaming, piracy, VHS or television.
Thomas, who is producing “The Odyssey,” emphasized the “profound cultural value in gathering together with a group of strangers and connecting while experiencing something special on the big screen,” in her statement about partnering with the movie theater trade organization.
“That is what this is about: making sure that cinemas of all sizes, around the world, can continue to present our stories in the best possible setting, so movie fans of all ages can enjoy them as they were intended to be seen,” Thomas said.
